How It Works – Inventory Logiq

How Inventory Logiq works

There is no single best forecasting model. Demand shapes differ by SKU. We run a competition, validate on actuals, and force outputs into decisions you can execute

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Holdout validation

Models tested on unseen data before selection

Bias tracked

Systematic over/under-forecasting measured per model

Stability scored

Forecast consistency across re-estimation cycles

A tournament of models per SKU

  • Multiple candidate models run per SKU
  • Winner selected on holdout error + stability + bias
  • Winner can change as new actuals arrive
Moving AverageHolt-WintersSARIMACrostonProphetRegressionWinner: Best FitValidated on holdout data
1007550250t-12t-9t-6t-3tTimeDemand (units)Holdout WindowOutlierActualsWinner (SARIMA)Other candidatesResiduals
Model Score Table (Example)
ModelMAE (holdout)BiasStabilityNotes
SARIMA WinnerLowLowHighBest holdout performance
Holt-WintersMedMedMed
ProphetMedHighLow

What we evaluate

Error on holdout periods
Stability of forecasts
Sensitivity to outliers
Fit to demand shape

Different demand shapes need different math

low variancedemandtime

Stable high velocity

BehaviorConsistent demand with minor noise
ModelMoving Average, Exponential Smoothing
WhySimple models work best when variance is low
T=perioddemandtime

Seasonal patterns

BehaviorRepeating waves tied to calendar
ModelHolt-Winters, SARIMA
WhyCaptures periodic peaks and troughs
zero-inflateddemandtime

Intermittent long tail

BehaviorZero-inflated with sporadic spikes
ModelCroston, SBA
WhyHandles demand with many zeros
upliftdecaydemandtime

Promo-driven spikes

BehaviorBaseline + uplift + decay pattern
ModelRegression (promo-aware)
WhySeparates baseline from event effects
cold startdemandtime

New launches

BehaviorShort history, wide uncertainty
ModelTrend extrapolation, Analogues
WhyBorrows signal from similar products
cannibalizationdemandtime

Substitution and assortment

BehaviorDemand shifts between products
ModelCross-SKU models
WhyAccounts for cannibalization effects

Validated on actuals, every cycle

New dataCompetitionWinnerValidationRe-evalError trend
Winner change over time
Cycle 1
SARIMA
Cycle 2
Holt-Winters
Cycle 3
Croston

When SKU behavior changes, the system can switch winners

Holdout MAE over cyclesC1C2C3C4MAE

Each cycle we re-validate on what happened

If a SKU changes behavior, the system adapts

The goal is fewer systematic planning errors over time

Not charts. Decisions

Reorder

Quantity and timing recommendations that respect lead times and constraints

Redistribute

Transfer recommendations when stock is in the wrong place

Overstock

Clear, bundle, or de-prioritize to release cash and reduce risk

Execution compatibility
Data SourcesShopify, Amazon, WMSInventory LogiqForecasting + Logic EngineExecutionERP, POs (CSV), Transfers

Constraints handled in the logic engine

Lead timesMOQsPack sizesService levels

Want to see a sample plan for your catalog

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